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B--Strategic Shocks Relevant to the New Strategic Guidance & US Ground Forces and Operational and Future Challenges Risk.

Solicitation Number: W911S0-13-STUDIES
Agency: Department of the Army
Office: Army Contracting Command, MICC
Location: MICC Center - Fort Eustis (Joint Base Langley-Eustis)
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Sources Sought
Added: Feb 28, 2013 4:04 pm
Small Business Sources Sought: This is a sources sought announcement only seeking small business responses in order to determine small business participation in this acquisition. The Mission and Installation Contracting Command - Fort Eustis (MICC-EU) is seeking information from small business sources that can provide expertise and services to support the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC), Army Capabilities Integration Center (ARCIC), Joint Interdependence Coordination Division (JICD) at Fort Eustis, VA.

Contractor shall provide study, research, and analysis under the auspices of the AR 5-5, Army Studies program. Project consists of two studies: Strategic Shocks Relevant to the New Strategic Guidance & US Ground Forces and Operational and Future Challenges Risk. The Government has not determined the contract type or whether the requirement will be single or multiple awards. The Period of Performance shall be no more than 10 months.

Below is a summary of the requirement:

Strategic Shocks Relevant to the New Strategic Guidance. quote mark Strategic shocks quote mark marry failure of anticipations with unprecedented disruptions. Shock and surprise are not the same. Strategic surprises are events that the defense and military establishment are well positioned to deal with; they simply manifest at an unexpected time or place or under conditions vastly different than those routinely accounted for in strategic planning. The last decade began with an administration focused on limiting extended commitments in foreign conflicts, reshaping US forward presences and leveraging a high tech transformation to quote mark leap ahead quote mark of potential military competitors and counter a rising East Asia. It sought to counter increasing threats to US access and freedom of actions emanating from regional powers possessing cruise and ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction; all while cultivating new foreign partnerships to manage lower-end threats on the messy periphery.

While every strategy accepts some risk, risk in this context is the likelihood of failure and/or prohibitive cost in securing one or more of DoD's new strategic objectives. During the course of study research and analysis, the contractor shall identify: potential gaps in the current strategy that may produce shock; isolate and describe shocks that would prove particularly disruptive; identify potential hedging strategies for preventing or mitigating the likeliest and most disruptive shocks, and identify new institutional mechanisms that may help DoD better account for strategic shock in the future.

The study encompasses four phases:

Phase I. The contractor shall conduct a literature review of current policy, the concept of strategic shock, and alternative national security futures, and compare with influential alternative perspectives. They will identify potential shock-producing gaps associated with the new strategic guidance.

Phase II. The contractor shall translate identified strategic quote mark gaps quote mark into a set of plausible shocks, make preliminary judgment about the character of the most plausible and dangerous shocks, the vulnerability of DoD's current strategy to them, their likelihood, and their impact on DoD's adopted courses of action as well as identifying potential hedging strategies that are specifically intended to prevent shock or bridge over its most disruptive effects.

Phase III. The contractor will assemble the results from Phases I and II in a draft final report which may be circulated to a select group of current and former defense officials and subject matter experts for review and comment.

Phase IV. During Phase IV the contractor shall complete the final written study report. Phase IV includes official report release and public roll out- to include preparation of various multi-media products, briefings for senior officials and key government stakeholders, etc. Phase IV ends with government receipt and acceptance of the final study report.

US Ground Forces and Operational and Future Challenges Risk. Force shape and size are common U.S. defense planning factors. The force's quote mark shape quote mark accounts for the unique capabilities essential to the performance of the most demanding quote mark no fail quote mark military missions. Force quote mark size, quote mark on the other hand, ultimately is an expression of the scale to which the force is able to satisfactorily perform the same quote mark no fail quote mark missions over time. Force size defines gross contingency response capacity and it determines the force's endurance in extended operations. Senior leader assumptions about the character of future military operations have enormous impact on both force quote mark shape quote mark and quote mark size. quote mark

According to the new defense guidance, DOD will shape the force for success in ten quote mark primary missions. quote mark Four of the ten - counterterrorism and irregular warfare, deter and defeat aggression, nuclear deterrence, and homeland defense and security - will help DOD determine the future force's size. DOD's characterization of the quote mark deter and defeat quote mark mission will have the most profound impact on the capability and capacity of general purpose ground forces by the end of the decade. The strategic foundation for the next Quadrennial Defense Review is likely to be DOD's new strategic guidance. With the Iraq War over, the Afghan War ending, and a limited number of obvious conventional combined arms opponents on the horizon, the department has begun the process of consciously assuming increased risk in large-scale ground operations, especially those operations that might entail widespread hybrid combat action and extended opposed stabilization. That risk is both quote mark operational, quote mark in that that it potentially impacts performance in near-term contingency missions, and it will certainly manifest downstream with respect to ground force performance against quote mark future challenges. quote mark

The objective is for the contractor to extrapolate a set of specific at-risk interests from the enduring national interests outlined in the President's National Security Strategy and identify the likeliest and most dangerous ground-centric threats to those at-risk interests; and evaluate DOD's new strategic guidance and Joint, Army, and Marine Corps plans to determine whether or not the strategic guidance and plans adequately address operational and future challenges risk associated with threats that are more likely to emerge from the middle of the conflict spectrum.

The study encompasses four phases:

Phase I. The contractor shall conduct an quote mark environmental survey, quote mark employing the most recent and reputable strategic forecasts, especially those relevant to scenario countries and regions. The goal of Phase I is to identify the best candidate scenarios for further development.

Phase II. The contractor shall fully develop the illustrative scenarios and, in consultation with relevant experts, design appropriate response contingency operations consistent with the missions described above. A wargame to draw out key insights that are decisive to answering the key research questions is recommended.

Phase III. The contractor shall cross-walk: 1) research findings; 2) wargame results; 3) ground force vision statements and concepts; 4) joint and service capabilities priorities (including joint enablers); and 5) the most recent DoD guidance.

Phase IV. The contractor shall incorporate the most relevant and important findings into the final written report. The study shall produce a written report and various presentations by contractor subject matter experts with key Government stakeholders. Phase IV requires ARCIC JICD approval and ends with government receipt and acceptance of the final study report.

This is new requirement.

The designated NAICS Code is 541990 - All Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services with a size standard of $14 million. No decision has yet been made regarding the small business strategy for this contract. Small business is advised that FAR 52.219-14, Limitations on Subcontracting, would apply wherein at least 50 percent of the work must be performed by the small business prime contractor alone. Small businesses wishing to influence the Contracting Officer's decision regarding small business set-asides are urged to respond to this announcement.

Your brief capabilities statement package (no more than 10 pages, single spaced, 11 minimum font size) demonstrating ability to perform the services listed above. A generic capability statement is not acceptable. Please review carefully the requirements listed below. This documentation must address, at a minimum, the following:

(1) company profile to include number of employees, annual revenue history (last 3 years), office location(s), DUNS/CAGE Code number, and a statement regarding current business status;

(2) capability of providing a team composition that can support the entire scope of this contract effort with sufficient depth to perform tasks of varying complexity while performing at least 51 percent of the work;

(3) capability of providing qualified and experienced personnel; and

(4) capability to begin performance upon contract award.

The capabilities statement package should be sent via e-mail to: by 14 Mar 2013 / 11:00 AM EST.

IF A SOLICITATION IS ISSUED IT WILL BE ANNOUNCED AT A LATER DATE, and all interested parties must respond to that solicitation announcement separately from the responses to this announcement. Additional information, as it becomes available, will be posted as amendments to this announcement. All amendments will be available for viewing at this website. It is incumbent upon the interested parties to review the site frequently for any updates and amendments to any and all documents. All potential offeror's are reminded to be registered at the System for Award Management (SAM) web site:
MICC Center - Fort Eustis (Joint Base Langley-Eustis), Building 2798, Fort Eustis, VA 23604-5538
MICC Center - Fort Eustis (Joint Base Langley-Eustis) Building 2798, Fort Eustis VA